The Chilia lobe shoreline changes faithfully reproduced the nearshore behavior with generalized progradation in natural conditions (Fig. 4c) at rates up to 120 m/yr!

Between Sulina and St. George, the shore was largely erosional at rates up to 30 m/yr (Fig. 4c) showing progradation only immediately updrift of the St. George mouth (Fig. 4c) suggesting that blockage of the longshore drift led to very local beach ridge development (Bhattacharya and Giosan, 2003). Downdrift of the St. George mouth behind the delta platform, the coast exhibited successive stretches of minor erosion and deposition. Further downdrift, the coast to Perisor was decoupled in behavior from the stability of its nearshore zone acting largely erosional with retreat rates Bcl-2 apoptosis pathway up to 20 m/yr (Fig. 4c). During the anthropogenic interval, the Chilia lobe shoreline changes are similar to their nearshore counterparts with local progradation at some secondary mouths (Fig. 4d). The lobe was already Roxadustat showing signs of erosion by the 1940s (Giosan et al., 2005) as the yet undiminished total sediment load to became insufficient for supporting the generalized progradation of its

expanding delta front. Localized progradation (Fig. 4b) occurred only where the net wave-driven longshore transport was either minimized (i.e., the northernmost mouth, Ochakov; Giosan et al., 2005) or oriented in the same general direction as the prograding mouth (i.e., the southernmost

mouth, the Old Stambul; Giosan et al., 2005). In contrast, in front of all mouths oriented eastward where the longshore transport rate was at a maximum, the delta front became mildly erosional or remained stable. South of Chilia, MG-132 cost the shoreline primarily remained erosive to the St. George mouth (Fig. 4b) as well as along the Sacalin Island. Minor progradation occurred in the shadow of the Sulina jetties, both north and south, and near the St. George mouth. The sheltered zone downcoast of Sacalin Island became largely progradational during the anthropogenic interval probably because of the additional sheltering afforded by the ever-elongating Sacalin Island (Giosan et al., 1999). The shoreline for the distal coastal sector south of Perisor, composed of baymouth barriers fronting the lagoons south of the delta (Fig. 1), followed a similar trend from stable to weakly retrogradational. One exception is the southernmost sector near Cape Midia where convergence of the longshore drift behind the harbor jetties of Midia Port (Giosan et al., 1999) led to mild progradation (Fig. 4d). Our new data and observations paint a cautiously optimistic view for the recent sedimentation regime on the delta plain, but also make it clear that the brunt of the dramatic Danube sediment load reduction over the last half century has been felt by the delta fringe zone from the delta front to the shore.